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What are your predictions for Black Friday 2020?


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#1 Brad  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 15, 2020 - 2:36 pm

JCPenney's bankruptcy filing today is another big hit for the retail industry. Pier 1, J.Crew, Neiman Marcus, Modell's and others have done the same in the last few months with more likely to follow.

 

As we approach the halfway point in the calendar, what does everyone envision for Black Friday this year? Obviously everything can and likely will change in the next 6 months, but as of now, what do you think happens when November rolls around? Is there any chance of a "normal" Black Friday?



#2 bossy1  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 15, 2020 - 2:46 pm

NOT A CHANCE..at least in my opinion. Due to the past few months I really see an extreme "fast foward" to retail experience that was already beginning to exist more in cyberspace than brick and mortar.

We may see a few  deals in physical stores only ,but stock will be very very limited and probably a repeat of an earlier deal or subpar items...IMHO



#3 len_mullen  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 15, 2020 - 4:49 pm

Is there any chance of a "normal" Black Friday?

 

If by normal, you mean people complaining that it isn't the same as it used to be and that the deals are not as good, then yes.



#4 msyves  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 16, 2020 - 6:21 am

I think the push will be more for online shopping. I'm a big in person shopper so I know this will affect me. I think prices will go up to offset losses companies received during this pandemic, so the great deals of Black Friday past may be small. 



#5 Gator Pam  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 16, 2020 - 10:25 am

I think it will depend on when, and how safely things open up. The general public has a short memory. If things open up safely by late July/early August without a spike causing retail spaces to lockdown again, I believe many may risk going out by the end of November for in-store deals.

However, if things don't start to reopen until mid-September, or even if things do but schools remain closed and switch to online learning for the first half of the school year, I think that constant reminder will keep people home, and retailers will have to switch to online offerings. If such happens, my personal thought is deals need to start showing up by Halloween, as retailers will be slammed and any hope of receiving shipments in time for Chr-stmas will need to be spaced out.

That's if the unemployment rate can recover with safe reopening, and people have the income to shop the way they have in the past.

#6 Kash  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 17, 2020 - 2:44 pm

Normal will probably not be like it used to be. Especially if this virus comes back in fall/winter with the flu.

I was in Menards the other day and the line was so long I heard someone comment about it looking like Black Friday. I can just image what the lines and shopping will look like there with social distancing. They will have to totally change their opening and door busters etc in order for everyone to be able to shop.

#7 Brad  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 18, 2020 - 4:57 am

I don't envy the retailers who have to make major Q4 decisions (promotion/sale planning, purchase quantities, etc) now with no possible knowledge of how things will be by November.



#8 jesusluvu  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 18, 2020 - 5:54 am

I think it will be HEAVILY online. With the flu season during that same time  I see major restrictions being enforced. I think the deals overall may be better as everyone will be trying to make a profit or rebound for the months of decline. My biggest fear is with most of the special products sold on BF are made overseas, so the restrictions on them coming over and inspections(cleaning) maybe tough. I see an increase in overall goods later on as with more online shopping will mean more returns. Stores will offer free shipping but will spread the fees among there products or in the return of the merchandise.



#9 len_mullen  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 18, 2020 - 6:01 am

Normal will probably not be like it used to be. Especially if this virus comes back in fall/winter with the flu.

I was in Menards the other day and the line was so long I heard someone comment about it looking like Black Friday. I can just image what the lines and shopping will look like there with social distancing. They will have to totally change their opening and door busters etc in order for everyone to be able to shop.

 

It will be interesting to see how people react to the next virus that makes the rounds.  The whole point of BF is to attract a crowd.  Making them walk around the stores with noodle hats probably is not going to work out...

 

red-pool-noodle.jpg

 

Then again, "If you can see my noodle, I probably got your Doorbuster," has a nice ring to it.



#10 Bopeep  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 18, 2020 - 7:32 am

I would think, since they need to be making these plans now, they would have to plan as if social distancing will be required.  I think the majority will have to be online.  Which breaks my heart a little, but I guess we are all making sacrifices.

 

That said, I personally think the deals will be better than they have been.  The last several years have pretty much been the same deals year after year. With BF being the day (days?!) that carry the rest of the year for most of these retailers, I think they will realize they have a better chance with more customers/lower prices than less customers/higher prices.   



#11 Brad  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 18, 2020 - 11:57 am

Then again, "If you can see my noodle, I probably got your Doorbuster," has a nice ring to it.

No shirts this year. Noodle hats it is!



#12 stationchief  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 19, 2020 - 7:08 am

No shirts this year. Noodle hats it is!

"If you can read this... Back off to six feet! Social distancing!!"

 

A 'normal' Black Friday is a moot point as I believe stores that are still licking their wounds will be continuously counting their losses and reacting to it. Far as the deals, with all the brick and mortar versions of stores that have gone away online shopping has become insanely more popular. I think the 'in-store only' line-up doorbusters will be nearly, if not completely, non-existent this year and we will have a lot more online doorbusters.

 

But then again, with the pandemic being completely unexpected this year, I don't think anyone can predict what will happen six months from now :g_shrug:


"If you put your mind to it, you can accomplish anything." - Dr. Emmett L. Brown


#13 Rose0426  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 19, 2020 - 12:32 pm

I think the push will be more for online shopping. I'm a big in person shopper so I know this will affect me. I think prices will go up to offset losses companies received during this pandemic, so the great deals of Black Friday past may be small. 

 

For things like games, toys, linens, etc, I usually get them online anyway, but clothes are in store only for me. I have to see how it looks and fits before I buy. I agree with prices going up, they are up now already and haven't seen anyone with good sales lately, even amazon



#14 len_mullen  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 19, 2020 - 1:31 pm

I agree with prices going up, they are up now already and haven't seen anyone with good sales lately, even amazon.

 

Eggs are up and promotions are down, but I think that has more to do with social distancing and staffing issues than supply chain.  My grocers are running regular ads again.  I got porterhouse steaks for $5.67/# and this week NY sirloins are $3.99.  I've seen a lot of TV deals.  Kohls just ran one of their 'up to 40% off' mystery coupons this week.  

 

Personally, I think consumers are kind of full and warehouses are kind of full (Walmart cleared out a 43" a Sceptre U435CV-U 4K UHD HDR 60Hz LED HDTV for $160).  I expect this BF to be a LONG, spectacular selloff.  I'm shopping for a 75+ hdtv for my new game room.  I bet I get a really good deal.  

 

Time will tell...



#15 berry1014  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 20, 2020 - 8:48 am

Eggs are up and promotions are down, but I think that has more to do with social distancing and staffing issues than supply chain.  My grocers are running regular ads again.  I got porterhouse steaks for $5.67/# and this week NY sirloins are $3.99.  I've seen a lot of TV deals.  Kohls just ran one of their 'up to 40% off' mystery coupons this week.  

 

Personally, I think consumers are kind of full and warehouses are kind of full (Walmart cleared out a 43" a Sceptre U435CV-U 4K UHD HDR 60Hz LED HDTV for $160).  I expect this BF to be a LONG, spectacular selloff.  I'm shopping for a 75+ hdtv for my new game room.  I bet I get a really good deal.  

 

Time will tell...

 

My husband works in an all electronic warehouse and the stuff is not coming in like it was. They are lucky of they are getting half the supply they were when this all first started. They had to laid off some staff and cut back hours because the work is not there. I has been like this for the past month and with no end in sight. 



#16 Ravenseye  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 20, 2020 - 5:45 pm

My husband works in an all electronic warehouse and the stuff is not coming in like it was. They are lucky of they are getting half the supply they were when this all first started. They had to laid off some staff and cut back hours because the work is not there. I has been like this for the past month and with no end in sight. 

This is totally my concern. The place where all this stuff gets made and shipped from, got whalloped with this illness just like we did (and even now they are experiencing a new surge of it...) The supply chain is broken down and I don't know if they have time to recover for the holidays... I work at a hobby shop, and our suppliers and distributors are having problems getting product.


Merry ChrismaHanukwanzikayule Everyone! (I know it's early, but it's the best time of year, and it should last well beyond when it's fashionable!)

#17 budgetsRsexy  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 21, 2020 - 4:23 am

I think spending will be down this year. A lot of people have been laid off or are scared that they will be so they’ve cut back on spending on nonessentials. I think the unemployment numbers will improve over time but it will be a LONG time before we get even close to where things stood before the pandemic. And then you have a lot of people scared by the possibility of second or third waves. Everyone I know seems like they are putting as much as they can into savings in case of another round of layoffs.

#18 len_mullen  OFFLINE  

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Posted May 22, 2020 - 12:17 am

My husband works in an all electronic warehouse and the stuff is not coming in like it was. They are lucky of they are getting half the supply they were when this all first started. They had to laid off some staff and cut back hours because the work is not there. I has been like this for the past month and with no end in sight. 

 

The root cause is a supply chain disruption.  Should be in better shape by August when Christmas orders are placed.


I think spending will be down this year. A lot of people have been laid off or are scared that they will be so they’ve cut back on spending on nonessentials. I think the unemployment numbers will improve over time but it will be a LONG time before we get even close to where things stood before the pandemic. And then you have a lot of people scared by the possibility of second or third waves. Everyone I know seems like they are putting as much as they can into savings in case of another round of layoffs.

 

I agree to some extent, but 60% of those who lost their jobs are making more on unemployment with the stimulus bonus.  Also, I see help wanted signs everywhere I go.  






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