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Black Friday Weather Forecast


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#1 wx4svr  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 24, 2008 - 11:08 am

Hey y'all. Just thought I'd throw this out there. Dick Frymire is a weather folklorist that lives here in the Bluegrass Hills of Kentucky. He studies natural and nature things and then makes a winter forecast. For those around the Ohio Valley, I wanted to post this... as it may actually affect you.

43rd annual Dick Frymire winter forecast
--Forecast give or take 2 days--
+If a heavy fog comes in before nightfall and lingers until 11:00 PM on any of the first 10 days of January, the winter will be worse than anticipated.
+Oct 16: Killing frost
+Nov 6: Flurries
+Nov 13: Flurries
+Nov 20: Tracking snow 11:28 EST
+Nov 25: 1" snow
+Nov 30: 1" snow
+Dec 7: 2" snow
+Dec 23: 1" snow
+Jan 7 through Feb 7: very cold
+Jan 15: 6" snow
+Jan 16: Coldest day -16 degrees
+Jan 23: 5" snow
+Jan 29: 3" snow and sleet
+Feb 2: 1" snow
+Feb 22: 2" snow
+Feb 25: First robin 9:27 AM EST
+Mar 8: Flurries (MY BIRTHDAY! Wo0o0oT:smirk:)
+Mar 20: 1" snow
+Apr 2: last flurries

What are your thoughts and are there any other predictions out there like this?

EDIT: Extra Info

Below is the official Climate Prediction Center's forecast for November, December, and January.
Posted Image
:holiday15 wx4svr - It's that time of year again! Bring on BF! :holiday16

#2 amberjobryant  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 24, 2008 - 11:22 am

I for one wish we would get that much snow (yeah I know I am crazy) but I am in western KY and I highly doubt it will happen

#3 arci122  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 24, 2008 - 11:27 am

I hope this scares people away so that I can be near the front of the line.

#4 Klownicle  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 24, 2008 - 12:14 pm

Im in florida, there is no snow. lol...

#5 wx4svr  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 24, 2008 - 12:40 pm

Im in florida, there is no snow. lol...


:sidesplit For some reason, I found that HILARIOUS. lol.
:holiday15 wx4svr - It's that time of year again! Bring on BF! :holiday16

#6 angelbabymommy  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 24, 2008 - 2:42 pm

For as long as Ive been shopping, we've had no snow in Delaware, but it can get really cold. Last year was not that bad. I doubt we'll get snow, but, hey who knows.
"Oooh fuuudge! Only I didn't say "Fudge." I said THE word, the big one, the queen-mother of dirty words, the 'F-dash-dash-dash' word! ---Ralphie

#7 wx4svr  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 24, 2008 - 3:00 pm

We actually had snow last year for Black Friday. It wasn't much.. but it as snow. (Flurries... lol) Also, it was about 22 degrees or something like that. IT WAS FREEZING! But it was fun none the less.
:holiday15 wx4svr - It's that time of year again! Bring on BF! :holiday16

#8 blkfridaylvr  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 24, 2008 - 4:04 pm

Gotta have Christmas-y weather...a chill in the air, flurries, etc.

#9 Miss Star  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 24, 2008 - 5:52 pm

I don't remember snow last year on BF lol and I hope we don't get any this year, the less snow the better, I HATE IT! lol

my lips are glossed but my heart is weak


#10 his_lil_gemini  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 24, 2008 - 8:31 pm

i dont think we've ever had snow on black friday

#11 Ravenseye  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 25, 2008 - 1:22 am

We've gotten it at times. We're the snow capital of ny (until you talk to the folks directly to the east of Lake Ontario.) -Mike
Merry ChrismaHanukwanzikayule Everyone! (I know it's early, but it's the best time of year, and it should last well beyond when it's fashionable!)

#12 ohitsunshine  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 25, 2008 - 2:15 am

Im in florida, there is no snow. lol...


:thumbsup: Me too!

#13 3 boys  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 25, 2008 - 4:42 am

I'm in the Ohio Valley.... so looks like a little snow... which I can handle :) Thanks for the info
:holiday09 Waiting on Black Friday :holiday12

#14 zim05  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 25, 2008 - 6:24 am

Well Minnesota = flippen cold...I'm so use to it that I don't mind it. I just hope that morning it doesn't snow cuz it really sucks driving in snow. The last couple years there really hasn't been a whole lot of it on the ground on BF...

#15 lot-narth  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 25, 2008 - 11:30 am

I'm usually in FLorida or Michigan - So one extreme or the other. One year not long ago, there was a blizzard in Michigan Thanksgiving night, but cleared up BF morning. However this happened to be the only year I waited over night in line.:fluffy:

#16 msdunning1986  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 25, 2008 - 12:21 pm

I live in Western Ky! I actually know of him, never knew he did those 'predictions" interesting!

#17 Grants Dad  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 26, 2008 - 12:23 pm

Well Minnesota = flippen cold...I'm so use to it that I don't mind it. I just hope that morning it doesn't snow cuz it really sucks driving in snow. The last couple years there really hasn't been a whole lot of it on the ground on BF...


Not sure where in Minny you are - but I can agree, we've been 'relatively' snow free the last 2 black fridays, but, usually it's about 15 and cold, so you don't notice the lack of snow :yup:
People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.” ~Rogers Hornsby:

#18 amberjobryant  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 26, 2008 - 12:49 pm

I live in Western Ky!
I actually know of him, never knew he did those 'predictions"
interesting!


what part of western ky, i am close to hopkinsville

#19 mgmckny  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 26, 2008 - 1:31 pm

Im in florida, there is no snow. lol...


Well no, not for Black Friday, but we did have snow just prior to CHristmas Eve in 1989. SHut Jacksonville down for a day (Sun came out Christmas Eve and most of it melted off). They even recorded snow flurries in the Bahamas that year....
“Next to a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read." Groucho :yup:

#20 General MarioXx  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 26, 2008 - 2:47 pm

im always in a tent with a space heater inside. so i say bring on the snow.

#21 lot-narth  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 26, 2008 - 3:15 pm

Well no, not for Black Friday, but we did have snow just prior to CHristmas Eve in 1989. SHut Jacksonville down for a day (Sun came out Christmas Eve and most of it melted off). They even recorded snow flurries in the Bahamas that year....


I was going to mention that earlier! I was so mad because I'm Floridian and my family is Canadian. But I love snow! And that was one of the only years we went to Canada for Christmas. So I missed it. Been waiting ever since... Maybe this year :fluffy:

#22 wx4svr  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 26, 2008 - 4:17 pm

what part of western ky, i am close to hopkinsville


Louisville IN DA HOUSE!!! I'm going to be in my home area.. the East End! lol. =)
:holiday15 wx4svr - It's that time of year again! Bring on BF! :holiday16

#23 elena_398  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 27, 2008 - 11:52 am

Only one year was I hesitant to go out. It was a few years ago and it was snowing and icing up pretty bad. I went out though and thankfully everything went well. Later on I watched the news and they said accidents were everywhere (stores I was shopping at). Luckily I made it home safe. After that, its just super cold.

#24 tokanm  OFFLINE  

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Posted Sep 27, 2008 - 12:22 pm

We generally will have some snow on the ground and it may or may not snow while waiting in line. I think I may be doing my BF shopping on line this year however..just too chaotic to wait and then they don't have it in stock etc etc I can stay in my sweats and drink cocoa and get some on line bargains :yup: Paying the shipping seems worth it to me in the long run

#25 Lusha120  OFFLINE  

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Posted Oct 7, 2008 - 6:46 am

Start laughing at me now. we shop in snow pants. You guys ever heard of lake effect snow? yep. west michigan here. on the lakeshore.. cold and snow every year. last year .... no snow. We were being pelted with ICE! but hey, 9+ hours in line your so cold you don't notice it!

#26 wx4svr  OFFLINE  

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Posted Oct 7, 2008 - 7:11 am

Hey guys. I thought I would share some new WINTER forecast thoughts going around the officials Let see..
========================================================
This is from Henry Margusity of Accuweather.com (One of the private forecasters)

COLD AND SNOWY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES. WARM ACROSS THE WEST, WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. COLD SHOTS INTO THE PLAINS.

Discussion: There is no overall clear signal to this winter's weather. We are in a neutral phase of the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) event, which neither the La Nina nor El Nino conditions will dominate. I guess one could say that the clear signal is no signal from any ENSO events. The winter forecast is primarily based on the neutral ENSO and pattern recognition from this summer's pattern and the early fall weather. We have seen the axis of the trough last winter over the western Mississippi Valley, but over the summer that axis has shifted into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. We have also seen the extension of the tropical ridge across the Southeast and the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for the hurricane tracks this year. I believe that ridge will break down and the winter jet, once it sets in, will tend to buckle over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. We should also have a strong jet plowing into the Pacific Northwest, which will lead to frequent storms in the Pacific Northwest. The other storm tracks will be a clipper pattern that will bring snow from the Midwest to New England and a coastal storm track that will lead to at least one or two major snow events in the I-95 corridor.

Starting in the West: The overall weather will be warm and dry as the ridge position remains stationary. I don't see a lot of storms hitting California, which means a high fire danger later in the winter.

The Plains: While not all that snowy, there will be frequent shots of arctic air. These will be quick shots, lasting a day or so before the warm air returns. Freezing drizzle and freezing rain might be the dominant precipitation because low-level, cold air is in place.

The Southeast: I think the Southeast will end up on the warm and dry side. This will not be good news for the Southeast, but the reality of the pattern shaping up for the winter.

For snow lovers, the Great Lakes and Northeast is the place to be as clipper-type systems will bring small amounts of snow, but frequent snow events.

I think the I-95 corridor folks from Richmond to Boston could finally have the snowstorms they so wished for. I think at least one or two major nor'easters will hit that area with snow events in the 6- to 18-inch range.


Below are some of the current graphics drawn up from Accuweather.com...
Posted Image
Posted Image
========================================================
This graphic takes us to January 1st, 2009. This is the "official" Climate Prediction Center's 3 month forecast...
Posted Image
========================================================
Old Farmers Almanac Forecast
Ohio Valey:
Nov. 11-17: Showers, warm
Nov. 18-22: Sunny, mild
Nov. 23-30: Rain to snow, then snow showers, cold
North East:
Nov. 18-22: Sunny, seasonable
Nov. 23-24: Stormy, heavy rain
Nov. 25-30: Snowy periods, cold
East Cost:
Nov. 18-21: Sunny, cool
Nov. 22-24: Heavy rain, mild
Nov. 25-30: Showers and flurries, cool
Appalachian Area:
Nov. 21-23: Rain, mild
Nov. 24-26: Snow, cold
Nov. 27-30: Flurries, then sunny, chilly
Southeast:
Nov. 17-23: Rain, seasonable
Nov. 24-27: Sunny, then showers, cool
Nov. 28-30: Sunny, cool
Florida:
Nov. 11-15: Sunny, seasonable
Nov. 16-22: Scattered t-storms, warm
Nov. 23-30: T-storms, then sunny; cold nights
South:
Nov. 17-21: Sunny
Nov. 22-25: Rain, then sunny, cool
Nov. 26-30: Showers, then sunny, cool
Great Lakes:
Nov. 20-24: Sunny, warm
Nov. 25-26: Rain to snow
Nov. 27-30: Snow showers, col
Upper Midwest:
Nov. 19-22: Sunny, mild
Nov. 23-27: Showers, then flurries, turning cold
Nov. 28-30: Sunny, mild
America Heartland:
Nov. 13-16: T-storms, mild
Nov. 17-26: Sunny, seasonable
Nov. 27-30: Showers, then sunny, warm
Texas / Oklahoma:
Nov. 13-16: T-storms, warm
Nov. 17-21: Sunny north, t-storms south
Nov. 22-30: Sunny, cool
Plains:
Nov. 17-21: Showers, then sunny, mild
Nov. 22-25: Showers, then sunny, seasonable
Nov. 26-30: Sunny, warm
Southwest:
Nov. 9-15: Scattered t-storms, seasonable
Nov. 16-21: Sunny, seasonable
Nov. 22-30: Sunny, cool
Pacific Southwest:
Nov. 13-17: T-storms, cool
Nov. 18-25: Showers, cool inland; turning warm coast
Nov. 26-30: Fog, drizzle inland; sunny coast
Pacific Northwest:
Nov. 15-20: Rain, mild
Nov. 21-27: Sunny, cold
Nov. 28-30: Rain, seasonable
Alaska:
Nov. 18-20: Heavy snow Panhandle; flurries, cold elsewhere
Nov. 21-25: Rain, mild Panhandle; flurries, very cold elsewhere
Nov. 26-30: Rain Panhandle and Aleutians, snow showers elsewhere; mild
Hawaii:
Nov. 13-18: Sunny, seasonable
Nov. 19-28: Showers, then sunny, warm
Nov. 29-30: Showers, cool

If you don't know where you are.. use this map for assistance:
Posted Image
:holiday15 wx4svr - It's that time of year again! Bring on BF! :holiday16

#27 Turtle Mommy  OFFLINE  

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Posted Oct 7, 2008 - 3:43 pm

Im in florida, there is no snow. lol...


:D Me too.

#28 Rebirth  OFFLINE  

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Posted Oct 8, 2008 - 11:17 am

It's so hard and far to predict. Chicago always had below the average on BF. Never above.

#29 mrs.winter  OFFLINE  

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Posted Oct 8, 2008 - 4:27 pm

I hope here in Missouri we have lots of Snow I LOVE IT !!

#30 Bigbroad55  OFFLINE  

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Posted Oct 8, 2008 - 7:33 pm

It never snows here, just chilly foggy and windows all fogged up by the time 11 am comes it is 90




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