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Black Friday Weather Forecast

wx4svr

By wx4svr
in 2008

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wx4svr

wx4svr

Posted
Posted

Hey y'all. Just thought I'd throw this out there. Dick Frymire is a weather folklorist that lives here in the Bluegrass Hills of Kentucky. He studies natural and nature things and then makes a winter forecast. For those around the Ohio Valley, I wanted to post this... as it may actually affect you.

 

43rd annual Dick Frymire winter forecast

--Forecast give or take 2 days--

+If a heavy fog comes in before nightfall and lingers until 11:00 PM on any of the first 10 days of January, the winter will be worse than anticipated.

+Oct 16: Killing frost

+Nov 6: Flurries

+Nov 13: Flurries

+Nov 20: Tracking snow 11:28 EST

+Nov 25: 1" snow

+Nov 30: 1" snow

+Dec 7: 2" snow

+Dec 23: 1" snow

+Jan 7 through Feb 7: very cold

+Jan 15: 6" snow

+Jan 16: Coldest day -16 degrees

+Jan 23: 5" snow

+Jan 29: 3" snow and sleet

+Feb 2: 1" snow

+Feb 22: 2" snow

+Feb 25: First robin 9:27 AM EST

+Mar 8: Flurries (MY BIRTHDAY! Wo0o0oT:smirk:)

+Mar 20: 1" snow

+Apr 2: last flurries

 

What are your thoughts and are there any other predictions out there like this?

 

EDIT: Extra Info

 

Below is the official Climate Prediction Center's forecast for November, December, and January.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_temp.gif

wx4svr

wx4svr

Posted
  • Author
Posted
We actually had snow last year for Black Friday. It wasn't much.. but it as snow. (Flurries... lol) Also, it was about 22 degrees or something like that. IT WAS FREEZING! But it was fun none the less.
zim05

zim05

Posted
Posted
Well Minnesota = flippen cold...I'm so use to it that I don't mind it. I just hope that morning it doesn't snow cuz it really sucks driving in snow. The last couple years there really hasn't been a whole lot of it on the ground on BF...
lot-narth

lot-narth

Posted
Posted

I'm usually in FLorida or Michigan - So one extreme or the other.

 

One year not long ago, there was a blizzard in Michigan Thanksgiving night, but cleared up BF morning. However this happened to be the only year I waited over night in line.:fluffy:

Grants Dad

Grants Dad

Posted
Posted

Well Minnesota = flippen cold...I'm so use to it that I don't mind it. I just hope that morning it doesn't snow cuz it really sucks driving in snow. The last couple years there really hasn't been a whole lot of it on the ground on BF...

Not sure where in Minny you are - but I can agree, we've been 'relatively' snow free the last 2 black fridays, but, usually it's about 15 and cold, so you don't notice the lack of snow :yup:

mgmckny

mgmckny

Posted
Posted

Im in florida, there is no snow. lol...

Well no, not for Black Friday, but we did have snow just prior to CHristmas Eve in 1989. SHut Jacksonville down for a day (Sun came out Christmas Eve and most of it melted off). They even recorded snow flurries in the Bahamas that year....

lot-narth

lot-narth

Posted
Posted

Well no, not for Black Friday, but we did have snow just prior to CHristmas Eve in 1989. SHut Jacksonville down for a day (Sun came out Christmas Eve and most of it melted off). They even recorded snow flurries in the Bahamas that year....

I was going to mention that earlier! I was so mad because I'm Floridian and my family is Canadian. But I love snow! And that was one of the only years we went to Canada for Christmas. So I missed it. Been waiting ever since... Maybe this year :fluffy:

elena_398

elena_398

Posted
Posted
Only one year was I hesitant to go out. It was a few years ago and it was snowing and icing up pretty bad. I went out though and thankfully everything went well. Later on I watched the news and they said accidents were everywhere (stores I was shopping at). Luckily I made it home safe. After that, its just super cold.
tokanm

tokanm

Posted
Posted

We generally will have some snow on the ground and it may or may not snow while

waiting in line. I think I may be doing my BF shopping on line this year however..just too

chaotic to wait and then they don't have it in stock etc etc

 

I can stay in my sweats and drink cocoa and get some on line bargains :yup:

Paying the shipping seems worth it to me in the long run

  • 2 weeks later...
Lusha120

Lusha120

Posted
Posted
Start laughing at me now. we shop in snow pants. You guys ever heard of lake effect snow? yep. west michigan here. on the lakeshore.. cold and snow every year. last year .... no snow. We were being pelted with ICE! but hey, 9+ hours in line your so cold you don't notice it!
wx4svr

wx4svr

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Hey guys. I thought I would share some new WINTER forecast thoughts going around the officials Let see..

========================================================

This is from Henry Margusity of Accuweather.com (One of the private forecasters)

COLD AND SNOWY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES. WARM ACROSS THE WEST, WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. COLD SHOTS INTO THE PLAINS.

 

Discussion: There is no overall clear signal to this winter's weather. We are in a neutral phase of the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) event, which neither the La Nina nor El Nino conditions will dominate. I guess one could say that the clear signal is no signal from any ENSO events. The winter forecast is primarily based on the neutral ENSO and pattern recognition from this summer's pattern and the early fall weather. We have seen the axis of the trough last winter over the western Mississippi Valley, but over the summer that axis has shifted into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. We have also seen the extension of the tropical ridge across the Southeast and the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for the hurricane tracks this year. I believe that ridge will break down and the winter jet, once it sets in, will tend to buckle over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. We should also have a strong jet plowing into the Pacific Northwest, which will lead to frequent storms in the Pacific Northwest. The other storm tracks will be a clipper pattern that will bring snow from the Midwest to New England and a coastal storm track that will lead to at least one or two major snow events in the I-95 corridor.

 

Starting in the West: The overall weather will be warm and dry as the ridge position remains stationary. I don't see a lot of storms hitting California, which means a high fire danger later in the winter.

 

The Plains: While not all that snowy, there will be frequent shots of arctic air. These will be quick shots, lasting a day or so before the warm air returns. Freezing drizzle and freezing rain might be the dominant precipitation because low-level, cold air is in place.

 

The Southeast: I think the Southeast will end up on the warm and dry side. This will not be good news for the Southeast, but the reality of the pattern shaping up for the winter.

 

For snow lovers, the Great Lakes and Northeast is the place to be as clipper-type systems will bring small amounts of snow, but frequent snow events.

 

I think the I-95 corridor folks from Richmond to Boston could finally have the snowstorms they so wished for. I think at least one or two major nor'easters will hit that area with snow events in the 6- to 18-inch range.

Below are some of the current graphics drawn up from Accuweather.com...

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2008/wintertemps.png

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2008/snowfall.png

========================================================

This graphic takes us to January 1st, 2009. This is the "official" Climate Prediction Center's 3 month forecast...

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif

========================================================

Old Farmers Almanac Forecast

Ohio Valey:

Nov. 11-17: Showers, warm

Nov. 18-22: Sunny, mild

Nov. 23-30: Rain to snow, then snow showers, cold

North East:

Nov. 18-22: Sunny, seasonable

Nov. 23-24: Stormy, heavy rain

Nov. 25-30: Snowy periods, cold

East Cost:

Nov. 18-21: Sunny, cool

Nov. 22-24: Heavy rain, mild

Nov. 25-30: Showers and flurries, cool

Appalachian Area:

Nov. 21-23: Rain, mild

Nov. 24-26: Snow, cold

Nov. 27-30: Flurries, then sunny, chilly

Southeast:

Nov. 17-23: Rain, seasonable

Nov. 24-27: Sunny, then showers, cool

Nov. 28-30: Sunny, cool

Florida:

Nov. 11-15: Sunny, seasonable

Nov. 16-22: Scattered t-storms, warm

Nov. 23-30: T-storms, then sunny; cold nights

South:

Nov. 17-21: Sunny

Nov. 22-25: Rain, then sunny, cool

Nov. 26-30: Showers, then sunny, cool

Great Lakes:

Nov. 20-24: Sunny, warm

Nov. 25-26: Rain to snow

Nov. 27-30: Snow showers, col

Upper Midwest:

Nov. 19-22: Sunny, mild

Nov. 23-27: Showers, then flurries, turning cold

Nov. 28-30: Sunny, mild

America Heartland:

Nov. 13-16: T-storms, mild

Nov. 17-26: Sunny, seasonable

Nov. 27-30: Showers, then sunny, warm

Texas / Oklahoma:

Nov. 13-16: T-storms, warm

Nov. 17-21: Sunny north, t-storms south

Nov. 22-30: Sunny, cool

Plains:

Nov. 17-21: Showers, then sunny, mild

Nov. 22-25: Showers, then sunny, seasonable

Nov. 26-30: Sunny, warm

Southwest:

Nov. 9-15: Scattered t-storms, seasonable

Nov. 16-21: Sunny, seasonable

Nov. 22-30: Sunny, cool

Pacific Southwest:

Nov. 13-17: T-storms, cool

Nov. 18-25: Showers, cool inland; turning warm coast

Nov. 26-30: Fog, drizzle inland; sunny coast

Pacific Northwest:

Nov. 15-20: Rain, mild

Nov. 21-27: Sunny, cold

Nov. 28-30: Rain, seasonable

Alaska:

Nov. 18-20: Heavy snow Panhandle; flurries, cold elsewhere

Nov. 21-25: Rain, mild Panhandle; flurries, very cold elsewhere

Nov. 26-30: Rain Panhandle and Aleutians, snow showers elsewhere; mild

Hawaii:

Nov. 13-18: Sunny, seasonable

Nov. 19-28: Showers, then sunny, warm

Nov. 29-30: Showers, cool

 

If you don't know where you are.. use this map for assistance:

http://www.almanac.com/weathermaps/us.weatherregions2005.gif

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