wx4svr Posted September 24, 2008 Share Posted September 24, 2008 Hey y'all. Just thought I'd throw this out there. Dick Frymire is a weather folklorist that lives here in the Bluegrass Hills of Kentucky. He studies natural and nature things and then makes a winter forecast. For those around the Ohio Valley, I wanted to post this... as it may actually affect you. 43rd annual Dick Frymire winter forecast--Forecast give or take 2 days--+If a heavy fog comes in before nightfall and lingers until 11:00 PM on any of the first 10 days of January, the winter will be worse than anticipated.+Oct 16: Killing frost+Nov 6: Flurries+Nov 13: Flurries+Nov 20: Tracking snow 11:28 EST+Nov 25: 1" snow+Nov 30: 1" snow+Dec 7: 2" snow+Dec 23: 1" snow+Jan 7 through Feb 7: very cold+Jan 15: 6" snow+Jan 16: Coldest day -16 degrees+Jan 23: 5" snow+Jan 29: 3" snow and sleet+Feb 2: 1" snow+Feb 22: 2" snow+Feb 25: First robin 9:27 AM EST+Mar 8: Flurries (MY BIRTHDAY! Wo0o0oT:smirk:)+Mar 20: 1" snow+Apr 2: last flurries What are your thoughts and are there any other predictions out there like this? EDIT: Extra Info Below is the official Climate Prediction Center's forecast for November, December, and January. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead02/off02_temp.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amberjobryant Posted September 24, 2008 Share Posted September 24, 2008 I for one wish we would get that much snow (yeah I know I am crazy) but I am in western KY and I highly doubt it will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arci122 Posted September 24, 2008 Share Posted September 24, 2008 I hope this scares people away so that I can be near the front of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klownicle Posted September 24, 2008 Share Posted September 24, 2008 Im in florida, there is no snow. lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4svr Posted September 24, 2008 Author Share Posted September 24, 2008 Im in florida, there is no snow. lol... For some reason, I found that HILARIOUS. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
angelbabymommy Posted September 24, 2008 Share Posted September 24, 2008 For as long as Ive been shopping, we've had no snow in Delaware, but it can get really cold. Last year was not that bad. I doubt we'll get snow, but, hey who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4svr Posted September 24, 2008 Author Share Posted September 24, 2008 We actually had snow last year for Black Friday. It wasn't much.. but it as snow. (Flurries... lol) Also, it was about 22 degrees or something like that. IT WAS FREEZING! But it was fun none the less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blkfridaylvr Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Gotta have Christmas-y weather...a chill in the air, flurries, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Star Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 I don't remember snow last year on BF lol and I hope we don't get any this year, the less snow the better, I HATE IT! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
his_lil_gemini Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 i dont think we've ever had snow on black friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenseye Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 We've gotten it at times. We're the snow capital of ny (until you talk to the folks directly to the east of Lake Ontario.) -Mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohitsunshine Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Im in florida, there is no snow. lol... Me too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3 boys Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 I'm in the Ohio Valley.... so looks like a little snow... which I can handle :) Thanks for the info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zim05 Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 Well Minnesota = flippen cold...I'm so use to it that I don't mind it. I just hope that morning it doesn't snow cuz it really sucks driving in snow. The last couple years there really hasn't been a whole lot of it on the ground on BF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lot-narth Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 I'm usually in FLorida or Michigan - So one extreme or the other. One year not long ago, there was a blizzard in Michigan Thanksgiving night, but cleared up BF morning. However this happened to be the only year I waited over night in line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msdunning1986 Posted September 25, 2008 Share Posted September 25, 2008 I live in Western Ky! I actually know of him, never knew he did those 'predictions" interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grants Dad Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 Well Minnesota = flippen cold...I'm so use to it that I don't mind it. I just hope that morning it doesn't snow cuz it really sucks driving in snow. The last couple years there really hasn't been a whole lot of it on the ground on BF...Not sure where in Minny you are - but I can agree, we've been 'relatively' snow free the last 2 black fridays, but, usually it's about 15 and cold, so you don't notice the lack of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amberjobryant Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 I live in Western Ky! I actually know of him, never knew he did those 'predictions"interesting!what part of western ky, i am close to hopkinsville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgmckny Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 Im in florida, there is no snow. lol...Well no, not for Black Friday, but we did have snow just prior to CHristmas Eve in 1989. SHut Jacksonville down for a day (Sun came out Christmas Eve and most of it melted off). They even recorded snow flurries in the Bahamas that year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
General MarioXx Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 im always in a tent with a space heater inside. so i say bring on the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lot-narth Posted September 26, 2008 Share Posted September 26, 2008 Well no, not for Black Friday, but we did have snow just prior to CHristmas Eve in 1989. SHut Jacksonville down for a day (Sun came out Christmas Eve and most of it melted off). They even recorded snow flurries in the Bahamas that year....I was going to mention that earlier! I was so mad because I'm Floridian and my family is Canadian. But I love snow! And that was one of the only years we went to Canada for Christmas. So I missed it. Been waiting ever since... Maybe this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4svr Posted September 27, 2008 Author Share Posted September 27, 2008 what part of western ky, i am close to hopkinsvilleLouisville IN DA HOUSE!!! I'm going to be in my home area.. the East End! lol. =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elena_398 Posted September 27, 2008 Share Posted September 27, 2008 Only one year was I hesitant to go out. It was a few years ago and it was snowing and icing up pretty bad. I went out though and thankfully everything went well. Later on I watched the news and they said accidents were everywhere (stores I was shopping at). Luckily I made it home safe. After that, its just super cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tokanm Posted September 27, 2008 Share Posted September 27, 2008 We generally will have some snow on the ground and it may or may not snow while waiting in line. I think I may be doing my BF shopping on line this year however..just too chaotic to wait and then they don't have it in stock etc etc I can stay in my sweats and drink cocoa and get some on line bargains Paying the shipping seems worth it to me in the long run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lusha120 Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 Start laughing at me now. we shop in snow pants. You guys ever heard of lake effect snow? yep. west michigan here. on the lakeshore.. cold and snow every year. last year .... no snow. We were being pelted with ICE! but hey, 9+ hours in line your so cold you don't notice it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx4svr Posted October 7, 2008 Author Share Posted October 7, 2008 Hey guys. I thought I would share some new WINTER forecast thoughts going around the officials Let see..========================================================This is from Henry Margusity of Accuweather.com (One of the private forecasters)COLD AND SNOWY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND GREAT LAKES. WARM ACROSS THE WEST, WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. COLD SHOTS INTO THE PLAINS. Discussion: There is no overall clear signal to this winter's weather. We are in a neutral phase of the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) event, which neither the La Nina nor El Nino conditions will dominate. I guess one could say that the clear signal is no signal from any ENSO events. The winter forecast is primarily based on the neutral ENSO and pattern recognition from this summer's pattern and the early fall weather. We have seen the axis of the trough last winter over the western Mississippi Valley, but over the summer that axis has shifted into the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. We have also seen the extension of the tropical ridge across the Southeast and the Gulf of Mexico, which accounts for the hurricane tracks this year. I believe that ridge will break down and the winter jet, once it sets in, will tend to buckle over the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. We should also have a strong jet plowing into the Pacific Northwest, which will lead to frequent storms in the Pacific Northwest. The other storm tracks will be a clipper pattern that will bring snow from the Midwest to New England and a coastal storm track that will lead to at least one or two major snow events in the I-95 corridor. Starting in the West: The overall weather will be warm and dry as the ridge position remains stationary. I don't see a lot of storms hitting California, which means a high fire danger later in the winter. The Plains: While not all that snowy, there will be frequent shots of arctic air. These will be quick shots, lasting a day or so before the warm air returns. Freezing drizzle and freezing rain might be the dominant precipitation because low-level, cold air is in place. The Southeast: I think the Southeast will end up on the warm and dry side. This will not be good news for the Southeast, but the reality of the pattern shaping up for the winter. For snow lovers, the Great Lakes and Northeast is the place to be as clipper-type systems will bring small amounts of snow, but frequent snow events. I think the I-95 corridor folks from Richmond to Boston could finally have the snowstorms they so wished for. I think at least one or two major nor'easters will hit that area with snow events in the 6- to 18-inch range.Below are some of the current graphics drawn up from Accuweather.com...http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2008/wintertemps.pnghttp://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/margusity/2008/snowfall.png========================================================This graphic takes us to January 1st, 2009. This is the "official" Climate Prediction Center's 3 month forecast...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead01/off01_temp.gif========================================================Old Farmers Almanac ForecastOhio Valey:Nov. 11-17: Showers, warm Nov. 18-22: Sunny, mild Nov. 23-30: Rain to snow, then snow showers, cold North East:Nov. 18-22: Sunny, seasonable Nov. 23-24: Stormy, heavy rain Nov. 25-30: Snowy periods, cold East Cost:Nov. 18-21: Sunny, cool Nov. 22-24: Heavy rain, mild Nov. 25-30: Showers and flurries, coolAppalachian Area:Nov. 21-23: Rain, mild Nov. 24-26: Snow, cold Nov. 27-30: Flurries, then sunny, chilly Southeast:Nov. 17-23: Rain, seasonable Nov. 24-27: Sunny, then showers, cool Nov. 28-30: Sunny, cool Florida:Nov. 11-15: Sunny, seasonable Nov. 16-22: Scattered t-storms, warm Nov. 23-30: T-storms, then sunny; cold nights South:Nov. 17-21: Sunny Nov. 22-25: Rain, then sunny, cool Nov. 26-30: Showers, then sunny, coolGreat Lakes:Nov. 20-24: Sunny, warm Nov. 25-26: Rain to snow Nov. 27-30: Snow showers, colUpper Midwest: Nov. 19-22: Sunny, mild Nov. 23-27: Showers, then flurries, turning cold Nov. 28-30: Sunny, mild America Heartland:Nov. 13-16: T-storms, mild Nov. 17-26: Sunny, seasonable Nov. 27-30: Showers, then sunny, warmTexas / Oklahoma:Nov. 13-16: T-storms, warm Nov. 17-21: Sunny north, t-storms south Nov. 22-30: Sunny, cool Plains:Nov. 17-21: Showers, then sunny, mild Nov. 22-25: Showers, then sunny, seasonable Nov. 26-30: Sunny, warm Southwest:Nov. 9-15: Scattered t-storms, seasonable Nov. 16-21: Sunny, seasonable Nov. 22-30: Sunny, coolPacific Southwest:Nov. 13-17: T-storms, cool Nov. 18-25: Showers, cool inland; turning warm coast Nov. 26-30: Fog, drizzle inland; sunny coastPacific Northwest:Nov. 15-20: Rain, mild Nov. 21-27: Sunny, cold Nov. 28-30: Rain, seasonable Alaska:Nov. 18-20: Heavy snow Panhandle; flurries, cold elsewhere Nov. 21-25: Rain, mild Panhandle; flurries, very cold elsewhere Nov. 26-30: Rain Panhandle and Aleutians, snow showers elsewhere; mild Hawaii:Nov. 13-18: Sunny, seasonable Nov. 19-28: Showers, then sunny, warm Nov. 29-30: Showers, cool If you don't know where you are.. use this map for assistance:http://www.almanac.com/weathermaps/us.weatherregions2005.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Mommy Posted October 7, 2008 Share Posted October 7, 2008 Im in florida, there is no snow. lol... Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebirth Posted October 8, 2008 Share Posted October 8, 2008 It's so hard and far to predict. Chicago always had below the average on BF. Never above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrs.winter Posted October 9, 2008 Share Posted October 9, 2008 I hope here in Missouri we have lots of Snow I LOVE IT !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigbroad55 Posted October 9, 2008 Share Posted October 9, 2008 It never snows here, just chilly foggy and windows all fogged up by the time 11 am comes it is 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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