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Share YOUR predictions for Black Friday 2011

Brad

By Brad
in 2011

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magickallight

magickallight

Posted
Posted

I think we will see the "Standard" $4 or $5 Small kitchen appliances, low end MP3 Players for $15 to $20, Cheap throws for 2 for $5, Christmas Lights for buy 1 get 2 Free, Cheap DVD's ($1 tp $5)... Lot's of the "Pull you in items" that we see Every Year. I DO agree that we will see Game Systems Galore, but most will offer Gift Card Incentives instead of a True Discount - or will be packaged with special games and accessories as a "Holiday Bundle Package" (Like we saw the PS3 and Several others last year.) I also agree that we should be seeing Blu-Ray Players around $50.00, and perhaps some up converting DVD Players for around $25. Kid's PJ Sets for $3 to $5 are also the norm, as are winter jackets thrown in at a nice price.

 

I think we will see FAR more buying being done ONLINE than we have in past years. I know the die-hards of Black Friday will still camp out in hopes of being near the front of the line to get their goodies - but to be honest - I was the "Stay at home person" last year, and was able to get the TV my daughter wanted from Walmart Online when she wasn't able to get one at the B&M and was one of the first waiting on it! I was also able to get her several things CHEAPER on Amazon's Black Friday Sale than the B&M Stores had them for... SHE LOVED IT!

 

With Amazon Announcing that they will be Starting THEIR Black Friday Sale on the Monday Prior to Thanksgiving - If the Deals are GOOD Enough - most of us won't have any money LEFT to bother going out for Black Friday - so that should help with Crowd Control! ;)

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msomnipotent

msomnipotent

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I predict that we will be seeing "Black Friday in September" and "BF in October", and "BF in December" sales up the wazoo, as there were many "Black Friday in July" sales this year. I would not be surprised to see a Black Friday on Tuesday sale. I predict I will develop a serious eye tick whenever I hear "Black Friday" before Christmas. I don't expect really great door busters this year, but more of the smaller sales throughout the season.

 

I would expect to see $5 Wii games, $5 Blu-rays, and perhaps $90-$100 3D blu-ray players. Costco had one on sale for $160 this week, so why not? I think there will be a lot of really cheap lower quality items and not so much high quality savings. The last time I waited in line on BF (years ago), I got a top of the line 50" Toshiba plasma for several hundred dollars off list price and free financing. I think we will only be seeing 2nd tier electronics this year.

 

I plan to do almost all of my holiday shopping online, and I am expecting shipping delays and stocking problems due to the increase in online shopping. I hope I get all the important gifts delivered before Black Friday.

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lorilwayne

lorilwayne

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I predict that we will be seeing "Black Friday in September" and "BF in October", and "BF in December" sales up the wazoo, as there were many "Black Friday in July" sales this year. I would not be surprised to see a Black Friday on Tuesday sale. I predict I will develop a serious eye tick whenever I hear "Black Friday" before Christmas. I don't expect really great door busters this year, but more of the smaller sales throughout the season.

I so agree with this- and definately with the economy news being what it has been I think we will see a lot more of the buyers being cautious on purchasing. I just hope we see some good prices on the ipods but not too good too soon- I don't have the money to buy them just yet.

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len_mullen

len_mullen

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Another 100,000 HP Touchpads will hit the market in the next 30 days. This will cause all sorts of problems for the other tablets and we will see great deals this year. Tablet sales will pressure laptop/desktop prices. Really big TVs will be on sale from October until January. People, still scratching their heads over 3D, will jump on LED sets. I will get a really good deal on a hugh plasma or DLP (both of which produce a better experience). PS3, XBox, and WII will be damn near free by BF. GPS units may actually be free as people invest in car mounts for their Droids. Amazing computers (2nd gen iCore laptops) will be $300 to $400.

 

All this is based on four things that have happened this summer...

 

- Gas prices are up and heating oil has not retreated while food prices are falling (>% of stagnant wages going to oil and gas)

- HP dumping close to 500,000 tablets AFTER the retailers have places their orders for Christmas

- Nintendo has announced a new gen HD game console

- Smart phones have put a full blown computer in a LOT of cars

 

Looks like a good Christmas for consumers.

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Ravenseye

Ravenseye

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hmm...I think, based on a few stores that I've been paying attention to, that there will be a lot fewer items in stock at any time this season. More stores are going to a Just In Time model (they carry just what they think they can sell based on recent history rather than historical precedent) So, I don't see a lot of _great_ deals coming along. Sorry to say.

 

I feel the first ads will be leaked soon, probably within the week, to gauge whether people are gonna generate free buzz for their offers...and then they will tweak the "secret" items they will be offering.

 

-Mike

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barc

barc

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Another 100,000 HP Touchpads will hit the market in the next 30 days. This will cause all sorts of problems for the other tablets and we will see great deals this year.

len,

 

That number would satisfy probably 1/5 of the demand out there, if not less. And dealers are snapping up anything that comes on the market and reselling on ebay. HP is not helping by dangling tidbits of information. I'd love to get a 32G for $150 but I'm not holding my breath.

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AndreaInNC

AndreaInNC

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len,

 

That number would satisfy probably 1/5 of the demand out there, if not less. And dealers are snapping up anything that comes on the market and reselling on ebay. HP is not helping by dangling tidbits of information. I'd love to get a 32G for $150 but I'm not holding my breath.

Yep - cause HP has yet to confirm the price of those 100K Touchpads. Why would they sell them at a loss when they know they could sell them for more?

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len_mullen

len_mullen

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I have no idea what HP is thinking. This isn't really about the HP tablets. It's about what the flood of cheap tablets late in August does to prices for all tablets for Christmas. All orders for Chinese merchandise have been places by the end of August. In fact, the stuff is already made and in the US or on the way. If you remove 300k customers, that impacts supply/demand across the board. I think you are going to see cheap tablets this year.
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len_mullen

len_mullen

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hmm...I think, based on a few stores that I've been paying attention to, that there will be a lot fewer items in stock at any time this season. More stores are going to a Just In Time model (they carry just what they think they can sell based on recent history rather than historical precedent) So, I don't see a lot of _great_ deals coming along. Sorry to say.

-Mike

Please post links to articles -- I'd like to read them. This is what I'm reading...

 

- Many retail industry analysts predict a good holiday season

- Economic forecasters predicting a Christmas sales bump in the U.S. may be disappointed

 

No matter, you cannot JIT China. I already see a lot of TVs going on sale at very good prices. Three years ago, I got a great deal on a 50" plasma/HTIB bundle from Best Buy in September. Since then, I've noticed retailers putting deals out earlier and earlier.

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Marcster

Marcster

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CVS will most likely be open on Thanksgiving (and we always go -- 1/4 mile from my house, everything is in stock and no waiting in line). I'm sure they'll have FREE after Extra Bucks deals.

 

PepBoys will most likely have a deal on Rain-X Latitude Wiper Blades like they have for the past two years, along with a few 5 quarts and a filter for $x.xx after MIR (they usually have a couple, some for synthetic, some for regular oil). And coolant for cheap after MIR. I always go there...

 

Lowe's will have crazy tool deals and will have poinsettias for $.88 like they did last year (and the plants I bought for the dealership lasted till MAY, till I got sick of them). http://s23.photobucket.com/albums/b399/Marcster2005/Smileypad/Holidays/icon_cool.gif

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AndreaInNC

AndreaInNC

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CVS will most likely be open on Thanksgiving (and we always go -- 1/4 mile from my house, everything is in stock and no waiting in line). I'm sure they'll have FREE after Extra Bucks deals.

 

I have been filling and refilling all my scripts at CVS lately and everytime I do, I get a $25 Gift card. Been saving those for those turkey day freebies! But where I live you have to be there within an hour of them opening or they are all gone. Depending on the product, you may be able to get a rain check too!

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lukesmom01

lukesmom01

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I have been filling and refilling all my scripts at CVS lately and everytime I do, I get a $25 Gift card. Been saving those for those turkey day freebies! But where I live you have to be there within an hour of them opening or they are all gone. Depending on the product, you may be able to get a rain check too!

WHAT?????!!! I always fill and refill all of my family's scripts at CVS and I have never gotten a $25 gift card (or ANY gift card for that matter). Last year I spent like $2000 on presciptions. You are lucky!
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Scanner420

Scanner420

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WHAT?????!!! I always fill and refill all of my family's scripts at CVS and I have never gotten a $25 gift card (or ANY gift card for that matter). Last year I spent like $2000 on presciptions. You are lucky!

Same here!!! I never got that....I barely get my extrabucks coupon since the cashiers are too lazy to ask for my phone number so I could get them!!

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iggypop123

iggypop123

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best buy will take the holiday off and offer mediocre deals. amazon is where its gonna be at. since i live in a populated city going to brick and mortar stores will likely not happen since lines get to be about around 100 8pm the night before basically eliminating you from any of the heavy hitter items. dont count on a major brand 99 dollar tablet. if you consider coby or something like that major and can deal with the android market not being available when you buy it go for it(dont, i was being sarcastic). i dont think the 32 tv's can go any lower and i think they wont. i got a coby for 150 at frys 2 months ago i dont know if you can see a 100 one again for BF. 42 inch tv's will be huge and widely available. the ninendo ds lite is gonna be huge as well. push by both retailers and nintendo to basically push out the remaining units or sell them while they can since its full on to the 3ds.
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  • 2 weeks later...
TazErase

TazErase

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Alot of people including BB does not see Wal-Mart or Costco as direct competition as they are not full blown electronic stores like Circuit City was. Back in the day when CC was around the BB and CC ads were fierce and the lines were very very long. The products and the prices were great and hard to beat. At one point BB and CC had rebates and then one year BB said no rebates. That drove alot of people to BB and the lines got longer.

 

Ever since CC went out of business BB has not even tried to bring in the people they use to.

 

Costco and Sams cant be seen as true competition as you have to pay to shop there and not everyone does that. Sams is even having trouble keeping members because of the down fall of the economy. Prime example is my Sams membership was running out 2 weeks ago. The manager who was ringing me up asked me if I would like to renew and I said no. I explained to her I had a Costco membership and they have more of the Asian, Indian and Kosher items I buy there. She took me up to the membership counter and asked me if I was willing to pay $20 for membership instead of the full price.

 

What do others think? I may talk about this more on the Black Friday webcast and want to know other peoples thoughts.

Both of you have a point but since many others will be selling cheap laptops and netbooks, I's expect Best Buy to have a laptop for about $149 this year. Laptops are still one of the items to draw the biggest crowd. Amazing how people show up at midnight thinking they may actually get one of the cheap laptops, but many of they stay hoping to get some other good deal on a different laptop. Those deals are limited to only the first few, and since they are very limited, if they can bring 100 people through the front doors, but only have 13 (that's what our store had last year) many of those waiting on line will go for the next laptop deal.

Deals were much better when CC was around and in fact 2 and even 3 years ago BB didn't have a cheap laptop deal. Last year, even with CC gone, they brought it back because they needed to get people to come in because having been on the line all 3 years, 2009 and 2010 the lines were shorter than ever even without the CC competition. The BB deals improved last year, and while not as good as 2008, the lines were about 25% longer than 2009 or 2010. Of course they were still only about 40% of what it was back in 2008.Even the 3rd group to show up at BB didn't arrive until about noon on Thanksgiving day, and they got the same laptop as I waited much longer for, although until the store opened they weren't sure if they'd get any where I knew being first I was guaranteed to get mine.

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jellybean051901

jellybean051901

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I am thinking that the GPS will be as low as $30-50. Laptops at $149.00. I wpuld really like to see a PS3 with a $100 gift card. That is possibly one of the things I need. I am also trying to determine between a laptaop/netbook/tablet for DD7. I get all excited about these predicted prices only to be disappointed by the ads:(
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jediliz

jediliz

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there will probably be another cheap deal for iTunes gift cards....last year I got a $50 card for $40 and was able to order it online from BestBuy on Thanksgiving or Black Friday.

 

I hope a few tablets (decent ones with Honeycomb 3.2 or 3.1 Android OS, not cheap brands like Coby) will be discounted somewhat or maybe bundled with a nice sized gift card....I'm thinking about getting a tablet to use instead of my netbook for traveling.

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Marcster

Marcster

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I figured I'd pay $199 for a decent netbook. Is the cvs netbook worth it? I got one from 6th ave last yr for $99 that was crap. This yr I cannot afford to do that. ANy help is greatly appreciated. Thanks.

Without reading the specs, I would think any CVS netbook to be complete junk.

 

Would you buy a T-bone steak dinner at IHOP? No, you'd probably go to Outback Steakhouse. Would you buy a vacuum cleaner from a 7-11? No, you'd probably go to Sears or Best Buy.

 

Same idea...

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