Share YOUR predictions for Black Friday 2011

[Brad]

I always post a set of predictions for popular items and prices each year, but this year I thought I'd open it up to you all first and see what you have to predict for this year.

 

So feel free to post items you think will be hot, price predictions for certain items, basically whatever you want. I'll use your thoughts along with my own when compiling the official GD predictions for this year that I'll post in the next week or two.

[starbeck96]

I am thinking that the Nintendo DS Lites will be on sale for around 60.00-70.00 since the price of the the newer have dropped.

 

I think that the Wii will be around 99.00 or it will be the price it is now and come with at least a 50.00 gift card. The PS3 will probably stay the same price but come with a 100.00 gift card. I can hope can't I..lol.

[mgmckny]

No predictions on hot items here, but I predict that Brad will need helpers to keep it all updated.... LOL

[momof3luvs1]

I do agree with some of the other predictions

good deals on tablets, wii at 99, ds probably at around 89 though.

gc deals with alot of the gaming systems...

The only other predictions that werent listed are hopefully on toys. I think alot of the kids toys like the kids cameras, texters, explorer paDS will be about 20 or so less then we see them now.

[bigjimslade]

For me I dont see any big changes in electronics. Best Buy still does not have a national competitor so I dont expect any great deals from them. The days of a $149.99 desktop is just a memory.

 

I also do expect at least one bozo to be in line 2 weeks before Black Friday in hopes to get a free ipad.

[2bauer4]

I hate to disagree but Best Buy is facing stiff competion and does have many national competitors. See the article below from their 3rd quarter last year:

 

Higher competition and lower consumer demand combined to bite into Best Buy's sales and earnings in the third quarter.

 

For the quarter ended November 27, the electronics retailer yesterday reported earnings of $217 million versus $227 million a year ago, while sales trickled down 1 percent to $11.9 billion from $12 billion last year. Both numbers were lower than analysts had anticipated, according to Bloomberg.

 

 

 

Sales and earnings both fell in Best Buy's third quarter.

(Credit: Best Buy)

 

Why the downturn? The quarter was hurt by weaker-than-expected sales of TVs, computers, and entertainment software as Best Buy faces increased competition from online retailers such as Amazon and rival stores such as Wal-Mart and Costo, all of which can offer lower prices. The one bright spot was in the mobile area where demand for smartphones andtablets (i.e, theiPad) helped somewhat to compensate for the poor results elsewhere.

 

 

Read more: http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-20025706-92.html#ixzz1WGFK8Wcb

[bigjimslade]

Alot of people including BB does not see Wal-Mart or Costco as direct competition as they are not full blown electronic stores like Circuit City was. Back in the day when CC was around the BB and CC ads were fierce and the lines were very very long. The products and the prices were great and hard to beat. At one point BB and CC had rebates and then one year BB said no rebates. That drove alot of people to BB and the lines got longer.

 

Ever since CC went out of business BB has not even tried to bring in the people they use to.

 

Costco and Sams cant be seen as true competition as you have to pay to shop there and not everyone does that. Sams is even having trouble keeping members because of the down fall of the economy. Prime example is my Sams membership was running out 2 weeks ago. The manager who was ringing me up asked me if I would like to renew and I said no. I explained to her I had a Costco membership and they have more of the Asian, Indian and Kosher items I buy there. She took me up to the membership counter and asked me if I was willing to pay $20 for membership instead of the full price.

 

What do others think? I may talk about this more on the Black Friday webcast and want to know other peoples thoughts.

 

I hate to disagree but Best Buy is facing stiff competion and does have many national competitors. See the article below from their 3rd quarter last year:

 

Higher competition and lower consumer demand combined to bite into Best Buy's sales and earnings in the third quarter.

 

For the quarter ended November 27, the electronics retailer yesterday reported earnings of $217 million versus $227 million a year ago, while sales trickled down 1 percent to $11.9 billion from $12 billion last year. Both numbers were lower than analysts had anticipated, according to Bloomberg.

 

 

 

Sales and earnings both fell in Best Buy's third quarter.

(Credit: Best Buy)

 

Why the downturn? The quarter was hurt by weaker-than-expected sales of TVs, computers, and entertainment software as Best Buy faces increased competition from online retailers such as Amazon and rival stores such as Wal-Mart and Costo, all of which can offer lower prices. The one bright spot was in the mobile area where demand for smartphones andtablets (i.e, theiPad) helped somewhat to compensate for the poor results elsewhere.

 

 

Read more: http://news.cnet.com/8301-1001_3-20025706-92.html#ixzz1WGFK8Wcb

[sweetdiggity]

I agree with the cheap Wii. We've already seen it bundled with a $50 GC in the last couple of months and I think it'll get even better than that. Last year Walmart and Amazon had a $100 GC so I'd expect at least that again even though the Wii price has dropped. It may be wishful thinking but we'll see. lol

[2bauer4]

I agree that Best Buy hasn't been trying to pull in customers and it has hurt their sales. I strongly disagree, though, that they don't view Wal-Mart as a competitor. Wal-Mart has greatly increased their electroncis departments as now they sell ebooks along with TV, and computers. Target is now agressively selling more electronics, Amazon is a growing threat as well as Apple with its own retail locations. Wal Mart to me had a much better Black Friday ad and that is why I shopped there instead of Best Buy last year. With Wal Mart, you also have a chance to buy their products without camping out a week ahead. See the analysts comments below from a recent Bloomberg article. While their stock rose because they beat the analysts projects, profits and sales were down for 1st quarter 2011 due to the increased competition (including Wal-Mart).

 

Best Buy Co., the world’s largest consumer electronics retailer, reported first-quarter profit that exceeded analysts’ forecasts, helped by rising demand for smartphones.

 

Net income fell 12 percent to $136 million, or 35 cents a share, in the quarter ended May 28, the Richfield, Minnesota- based company said today in a statement. Analysts predicted 33 cents, the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The shares climbed the most in nine months.

 

Increasing demand for mobile phones and tablets countered declining revenue from televisions. As competition intensified from Amazon.com Inc. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT), Chief Executive Officer Brian Dunn began reorganizing stores and retraining employees last year to push sales of gadgets that work together.

 

“There’s substantial strength there,” David Schick, an analyst at Stifel Nicholas & Co. in Baltimore, said today in a telephone interview. He recommends buying the shares. “All of last year the business got worse than it had in the prior quarter, and it’s showing reversal of that.”

 

Best Buy rose $1.31, or 4.6 percent, to $30.13 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, the biggest percentage gain since Sept. 14, 2010. The shares have declined 12 percent this year.

 

Domestic Sales

 

Sales by stores open at least 14 months fell 1.7 percent, including a drop of 2.4 percent in the U.S. Analysts projected a domestic decline of 4 percent, the median of five estimates by International Strategy & Investment Group, Janney Capital Markets, Caris & Co., Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. and RBC Capital Markets.

 

Revenue increased 1.4 percent to $10.9 billion. Analysts estimated $10.7 billion.

 

As part of the stores’ reorganization, floor walkers were retrained to show shoppers how gadgets work together -- a concept Dunn calls the “connected store.”

 

The connected store represented a midcourse correction for Dunn, whose previous strategy involved loading up stores with exclusive products, including an electric bike. Best Buy has since lost customers to Apple Inc., Amazon.com, Wal-Mart Stores and Costco Wholesale Corp., according to analysts.

 

U.S. connection revenue, which comes from mobile phone contracts and wireless broadband for phones, rose 20 percent in the first quarter.

 

Best Buy reiterated its full-year projection for earnings per share of $3.30 to $3.55, excluding restructuring costs. Analysts predicted $3.47. The retailer earned $3.43 last year.

 

Net income was $155 million, or 36 cents a share, in the year-earlier quarter.

[tinkrbel]

Just my two cents: Best Buy has competition but nothing full blown or particularly threatening, Where else can you compare different spec pc's, tv's alongside fridge/freezers etc? I'd say amazon is the biggest competitor only because so many sellers join to offer more variety. Locally we have BrandsmartUSA which is probably a big competitor for appliances but again they don't have the variety of other stuff (computers/camera's/etc). Brandsmart is further away and notably (for me) most of the reps don't appear to have the knowledge of Best Buy reps.

 

 

I would never stop into Target, Walmart or even Kmart for an electronics purchase unless I knew it was in stock(in ad or word of mouth)or felt like a look around anyways. My local Walmart and Target's have plenty of tv's and a few laptops but not much else, sure their online stores have a little more variety but nothing near Best Buy. I remember the days when I was spoiled for choice between Best Buy, Circuit City and CompUSA(for pc stuff). CompUSA was sold and now has nearly no sales, CircuitCity closed which pretty much leaves BestBuy. Oddly enough RadioShack has been pretty good to me the last two years but again it's stuff I've found online or gone specifically to pick up after seeing in an email or ad.

 

I have a new Walmart opening on Wednesday so that should be kind of interesting for BF but at the same time I don't really need(and probably can't afford) much this year. I'll wait until I've seen the sales but this year might be a good year just to observe crowds since everything is pretty close by apart from jcpenney (for snowglobes ) and petstore.

 

I remember ,year's ago, getting into CompUSA on Thanksgiving night for free(or nearly) after rebate stuff those kind of sales don't really exist anymore.

[barc]

You can still go to Sears to get electronics. They aren't any better than BB and have a much more limited selection and stock. I've said it multiple threads here, BB needs to either get their act together or go out of business.

[laddhorn]

I don't think that BB is worried about Walmart or any similar chain. After all, you can't walk into Walmart and get someone to explain why x TV is better than y TV. BB's only competition is really local. Fry's Electronics has very few stores nation wide. Same with Microcenter. If either of these chains became big, then they would give BB a run for it's money.

The only reason why Walmart and Target are taking money from BB is because of the economy. Walmart is a "low price" leader and has marketed themselves as such. They do well in poor economies because people are trying to save money. They perceive Walmart as a cheaper alternative to BB.

[barc]

y. They perceive Walmart as a cheaper alternative to BB.

That's not perception, that's reality. Walmart, Costco, Target, BJ's and just about everyone else is cheaper than BB except for targeted sales with limited supply. I never buy anything from BB. If I need a cable and Walmart doesn't have it, I either use the web or go to Microcenter. BB is just too darn expensive.

 

This thread is way off target from the subject and is quickly being hijacked IMO .

[bigjimslade]

You took the thoughts out of my mind. That is why I said BB has no competition and is not worried about WM. If you ask someone at WM a detailed question you get a blank stare.

 

Back to the topic........What are people's thoughts about the lines this year and the crowd control issue this year?

 

I don't think that BB is worried about Walmart or any similar chain. After all, you can't walk into Walmart and get someone to explain why x TV is better than y TV. BB's only competition is really local. Fry's Electronics has very few stores nation wide. Same with Microcenter. If either of these chains became big, then they would give BB a run for it's money.

The only reason why Walmart and Target are taking money from BB is because of the economy. Walmart is a "low price" leader and has marketed themselves as such. They do well in poor economies because people are trying to save money. They perceive Walmart as a cheaper alternative to BB.

[pogiporkchop]

A lot more voucher sellers, larger lines starting earlier and (hopefully) more police and security presence where large crowds are gathered. Overall the ads will not be outstanding, most people will be shopping for basics and more than a few fights will break out. Ready the BF madness thread!

 

On the sale side, I think Meijer will again do a game system deal: buy, let's say, a Wii and get X off ($30-50) your next grocery purchase.

[homedirt]

I think the ds lite will be around $50 with the dsl xl at $100 I think the xl will price drop to $129 before bf. With the 32" tv's normally around 200 I think we will see a 42" this year at that price point. You know Walmart will have a $200 laptop as always. I also see a android tablet around $100 after a giftcard well I hope anyway. I see a xbox price drop and a gift card $50 on 4gb $100 on knect. Proabaly $50-$100 on ps3 I'd say $50 on wii. I'd love to see a 60"+ tv for under $500 , but don't know about that. Something tells me we will see better ads this year. Oh yeah and a great deal on washer dryer at sears again like always. Dw has said she wants a new washer and dryer this year so I guess instead of the nice warm Walmart like the past two years it'll be cold sears this year for me.

[BFQueenofNY]

$99 tablets

[Guest vita555]

I think the ds lite will be around $50 with the dsl xl at $100 I think the xl will price drop to $129 before bf. With the 32" tv's normally around 200 I think we will see a 42" this year at that price point. You know Walmart will have a $200 laptop as always. I also see a android tablet around $100 after a giftcard well I hope anyway. I see a xbox price drop and a gift card $50 on 4gb $100 on knect. Proabaly $50-$100 on ps3 I'd say $50 on wii. I'd love to see a 60"+ tv for under $500 , but don't know about that. Something tells me we will see better ads this year. Oh yeah and a great deal on washer dryer at sears again like always. Dw has said she wants a new washer and dryer this year so I guess instead of the nice warm Walmart like the past two years it'll be cold sears this year for me.

I just hope that its and awesome black Friday I just want to see the iPad a lot cheaper and the wii

 

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[gatorburg]

Walmart is in competition with BB. I think the DS lite will be close to $50.00. The 3ds is the new system out that all the kids will be wanting. It is right now $169 so I think Walmart or Target will do a $50.00 or a $100.00 gift card or put games in with it. The Wii would be more like $80.00 or less. PS3 just had a $50.00 price cut so I see it around BF for $200.00 or you get alot of free games. I hope there are some tablets around $100.00 or less. The Xbox360 will have kintect with it. Maybe Walmart will put some of their DVD's down to around $1.00. I love that BF lately has had some cheap DVD's. There will probly be a Blu-Ray DVD player for close to $50.00 or less. A GPS will be around $50.00. Oh and one of the Walmart's I shop at still has some of the BF video games from last year. They have never taken off the color stickers lol.

[Elmck]

I hope everyone that predicted the Wii for under $100 or with a great gift card is right.

[peifgirl]

I have no reall predictions for items. But I really hope they don't do this opening up at 10-Midnight crap again. I really didn't enjoy that. I hit all the stores I needed to then had to wait from 1am till 5-6am for everything else I needed. I live 30 mins from the town I shop at. I had a hell of a time killing that time when there was NOTHING open. I couldn't find anything to eat but at a gas station and could only get their nasty coffebecause Starbucks didn't open till 5am.

[peifgirl]

Oh I bet they will do a cheap Wii deal because the new Wii will be out soon.

[starbeck96]

I didn't know they were coming out with a new Wii..

[angelbabymommy]

I didn't know they were coming out with a new Wii..

I didn't know either lol ...it looks awesome tho!

[nicole20]

where did you go to see the new wii?

[Brad]

The new Wii is the "Wii U" but it won't be out until next spring at the earliest (at least that's the last I heard), so it shouldn't affect the price of the current Wii much this year. Next year should be a different story though.

[Guest vita555]

The new Wii is the "Wii U" but it won't be out until next spring at the earliest (at least that's the last I heard), so it shouldn't affect the price of the current Wii much this year. Next year should be a different story though.

From what I heard the Wii is coming down in price again that's what I saw

 

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[peifgirl]

where did you go to see the new wii?

Nintendo's web site

[dad2trips]

I think this may finally be the year of the $99 Netbook. Can't say that I would buy it though!

Also, probably another laptop deal at BB - maybe a $149 deal?

[stationchief]

HP Touchpads from Best Buy. Utter doorbuster madness.

 

Also, with the Nintendo Wii goin' down in price to $150 to make way for the 'Wii U' next year, I'd expect to see a Wii console for about $100 taking into account the gift cards.