I have the middle one since last Nov and it still works perfect. Bought an Elite simply because I wanted the Black case in the living room so it matches the other electronic crap (yes I am anal that way) anyway it was brand new and I had the RROD in 30 days with it. So there is really no rhyme or reasoning to the RROD.
However I would get the middle one since it has the 60 GB HD now that should be plenty of room for your ds.