Brad

As I've done the past few years, I've looked at the data from the past 4 years including when the ad was leaked for some popular stores and what date Black Friday fell on each year. Based on these numbers and this year's Black Friday date (November 27th), here is the "average" day you can expect these ads this year: November 7: Sears November 8: Gander Mountain November 9: Kohl's, Sam's Club, JCPenney, Sports Authority November 10: Toys R Us, Kmart November 11: Best Buy, Walmart, Target, CVS, Walgreens November 12: Meijer, Office Depot November 13: Staples, Bass Pro Shops November 14: Old Navy November 15: Lowe's, Menard's November 16: Dick's Sporting Goods November 17: Home Depot November 27: Black Friday 2015 Half Price Books, which already is out, would have been predicted for October 21st. Harbor Freight is predicted to be leaked on October 15th (Thursday of this week). You can go back through the last 9 years to see the leaked dates for many stores here: http://blackfriday.gottadeal.com/Dates Of course you may remember that the last 2 years we had a crazy 36-hour periods that saw ads from Walmart, Best Buy, Target, Kohl's, Sears, Kmart and many others all released right after each other. I expect something similar this year around November 9-10, so be prepared...

You can already get discounts on some models of the Apple Watch. For example on eBay Deals today they have a $599 model for $519: http://www.ebay.com/itm/Apple-Watch-42mm-Stainless-Steel-Case-Black-Sports-Band-MJ3U2LL-A/401008393450?hash=item5d5df67cea Free shipping and no tax for most. So there are deals available now and so I'd expect deals on BF as well. Last year eBay was a great place for deals on iPads & iPhones during November. That should be the same with the watch this year I'd guess.

Another one of our favorite t-shirt contests! Below are 3 photos from past Black Fridays. Come up with a caption for each photo and post them in this thread. Entries will be accepted until 9pm ET on Sunday, October 18th. At that point, I'll randomly choose 10 members who have submitted captions for all 3 photos and you'll each win a Black Friday t-shirt. If you've already won a BF t-shirt in a previous contest this year, you can't be selected as a winner again, but you can still feel free to post your captions. Here are the photos: PHOTO #1 http://blackfriday.gottadeal.com/images/cap1.png PHOTO #2 http://blackfriday.gottadeal.com/images/cap2.png PHOTO #3 http://blackfriday.gottadeal.com/images/cap3.png Good luck! http://i.gottadeal.com/main/images/merch/2015design.png

The 5 winners are: jade2002 kboyts radritch gjedda03 msyves Congrats and look for the next contest soon

Probably won't be for another 2-3 weeks. We rarely see any major ad before the last week of October.

I'm guessing you found a massive leak of last year's ads maybe?

FYI, the winners of this contest will be chosen and announced sometime tomorrow. We'll also start the next t-shirt contest

Still pretty early. We didn't post it last year until the 24th. But as always, if anyone gets a copy of any of the big toy catalogs (or any BF ad), let us know ASAP

http://blackfriday.gottadeal.com/MoreSales/FarmFleetToyland http://blackfriday.gottadeal.com/MoreSales/FleetFarmToyBook

It's always Black Friday season for me, haha. But seriously in some ways it's the first week of November for me. That's when we typically start seeing the "real" (non-Harbor Freight/non-Half Price Books) type of ads leaking. That week is also when the online deals typically start to ramp up. Amazon usually starts their expanded Lightning Deals that week as well.

Also just a reminder that the shirts we give away will be up to size XL only, so if you need larger sizes, ordering them is the only way to go. Thanks to everyone who has ordered so far. We know a lot of you are waiting to see if you win one before ordering, so we'll be sure to let you know when the ordering deadline is getting closer.

Right, but I set the amount needed to print to be the lowest possible (3) so that shouldn't be a problem.

Shirts can now be ordered. Details in this thread: http://forums.gottadeal.com/topic/252030-order-your-black-friday-gottadealcom-t-shirts/ I'm going to close this thread and t-shirt talk can continue over there

The ordering period for shirts is now over. See end of thread for updates.

Shirts should be available to order in the next day hopefully

http://consumerist.com/2015/10/05/retailers-prepare-to-fight-holiday-shoppers-and-each-other-to-not-offer-discounts/ "Retailers really, really want to wean American shoppers off our recession-era addiction to discounts. Will it be possible for them to resist the temptation to slap “40% off” signs everywhere to attract customers? Retail forecasts for this holiday season show that retailers want to avoid selling products at a discount, while consumers plan to make their shopping decisions according to price."

Target REDcard signup link: http://www.gottadeal.com/Coupon/34640 Some of the best gift card deals recently have been on eBay on their deals page: http://deals.ebay.com They've had a lot of stores/restaurants/gas stations for 10-20% off with free shipping and earning eBay Bucks.

No back design this year. It's cold on Black Friday where a lot of us live, so I've heard many times how with jackets/hoodies on that nobody saw the back anyway. It also helps keep the cost of the shirt low by not having 2 print locations so we might be able to get a better quality shirt for around the same price. I figure most of you have at least one older shirt with the slogan on the back, so if you really want it to be seen, you could wear one of those instead. We didn't have the slogan the year we did the "caution" sign design on the back, so it has happened before But if I had to guess, the slogan will make its triumphant return next year. Just taking a year off.

Yep, no winners from the prediction part, but you can still add a comment to the thread to be eligible to win one of the 5 t-shirts.

Scans: http://blackfriday.gottadeal.com/BlackFridayScans/HalfPriceBooks PDF: http://i.gottadeal.com/blackfriday/scans/pdf/GottaDeal-HalfPriceBooks-BF2015.pdf Listing: http://blackfriday.gottadeal.com/BlackFridaySales/Store/HalfPriceBooks This is their more general holiday gift guide, but it has the details of their Black Friday sale so we're considering it the first ad

Might be a good idea to upload an archived version of this to YouTube afterwards so those who can't get in for whatever reason could still check it out.

I'm checking to see what shirts we can get. An upgraded shirt would be nice, although it might add a buck or two to the cost, but I'm looking into it

We also posted a t-shirt contest on our Facebook page, so be sure to enter there for another shot to win: https://www.facebook.com/gottadeal

Staples is already being discussed here: http://forums.gottadeal.com/topic/251678-staples-opening-at-6am-on-black-friday/

Here is the design for this year's Black Friday t-shirts: http://i.gottadeal.com/main/images/merch/2015design.png A little different type of design than we've had in the past, but I hope you guys like it. Now for the question many of you are asking - how can I get one (or more)? 1. As always, we'll be giving away a bunch of shirts here on the forum, on our Facebook page and through the live webcasts. Note that the shirts we give away will probably only go up to size XL, so if you need larger sizes, continue reading. 2. Starting sometime next week, I will once again offer shirts for sale. Unlike last year when we made the mistake of going with Represent.com, this year I'll go back to selling and shipping them myself. Shirts will be available for several weeks so you'll have plenty of time to get your order in. Shirt sizes for these will be up to 4XL, possibly larger depending on which style of shirt we go with. Prices will be posted when they go on sale, but they'll be similar to previous years. 3. I'll also likely set something up through Teespring.com for hoodies, long sleeve t-shirts and possibly other items (kids & baby sizes?) using this design. Those orders will be handled by Teespring, but I'll price them all at the lowest possible price I can. If you order one or more t-shirts from me directly, as always I'll include some additional GD swag in your package as a thank you. So that about covers it all. More info next week when they go on sale but I wanted to show you the design today. If you have any questions, feel free to PM me or post here in the thread.