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Black Friday 2007 Weather Forecasts Thread

bigjimslade

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in 2007

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bigjimslade

bigjimslade

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La Nina predicted to bring warmer winter weather to Dallas-Fort Worth area

 

06:06 AM CDT on Thursday, October 18, 2007

 

By MICHAEL E. YOUNG / The Dallas Morning News

[email protected]

 

The start of winter sits two months off, but forecasters already are offering a peek into North Texas' winter: notably warmer and a little drier than usual.

 

Ken Reeves, director of forecasting operations at AccuWeather, said a developing La Nina pattern in the Pacific Ocean should mean a warmer winter for much of the U.S., with temperatures 2 to 4 degrees higher than usual across Texas. AccuWeather is a leading private forecasting service based in State College, Pa.

 

A few degrees warmer might not seem like much. But for many struggling to pay their utility bills, it can make a big difference.

 

"Any time people need to run the heat for longer periods of time, that adds to the kilowatt hours," said Patrick Patey, a spokesman for the Salvation Army in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.

 

"There's such a big group of people out there, the working poor, who come to us in a crisis. And for a lot of them, a big utility bill can be a crisis.

 

"So anything that helps them cut corners and cut costs is a good thing."

 

Mr. Reeves said La Nina is one of the signals the forecasting service looks at, "but it's combined with a warmer phase in the Atlantic, and the combination of the two points to a relatively mild forecast for a large chunk of the nation."

 

Only the Pacific Northwest is looking cooler, he said.

 

Mr. Reeves likened the development of the current La Nina to that in the winter of 1998-99, when average January temperatures at Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport were more than 5 degrees above normal, and February's high temperatures were 8.4 degrees higher.

 

The average high temperature in the Dallas-Fort Worth area that February was 67.3 degrees, with 13 days in the 70s.

 

AccuWeather's forecast lines up with the current thinking of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center. But in the competitive world of weather forecasting, "we kind of go a step further," Mr. Reeves said.

 

"What [NOAA] tells you is the probability of the weather being warmer or cooler," he said — and in North Texas, the probability of warmer weather is 50 percent. "But we try to indicate the magnitude of warmer weather.

 

"And we believe that across Texas, temperatures will generally be 2 to 4 degrees above average."

 

La Nina, a stream of cold water slicing through the central Pacific, is the engine for that.

 

"La Nina is here, with a weak to moderate event likely to persist through the winter," Michael Halpert, head of forecast operations at the Climate Prediction Center, said last week.

 

But AccuWeather's forecasters say the La Nina effect could be more intense than that.

 

"There's some feeling here it could be at a strong level," Mr. Reeves said. "Potentially, it could get to be a Top 5 La Nina."

 

And the lower the ocean temperatures in the central Pacific, he said, the more likely it is that the U.S. will experience classic La Nina weather — relatively warm and dry across the southern tier and cooler and wet in the Northwest and parts of the North.

 

But this is Texas, and we're still talking about winter.

 

"That doesn't mean there won't be some intrusions of cold air," Mr. Reeves said. "The one thing about this pattern is the cold air isn't that far away. Western and central Canada will probably be colder than normal, so you can have a surge of cold air invade the U.S.

 

"But we don't believe the cold will be as prolonged in most places east of the Rockies."

 

The other thing about a La Nina pattern is rainfall, with the Southeast and Southwest drier than usual — a troubling forecast in both areas that have been hit hard by drought.

 

With rainfall in some areas of the Southeast more than 20 inches below normal, a winter forecast with precipitation probabilities down sharply could be devastating.

 

"Given this pattern, it's very possible that large chunks of Alabama, parts of Georgia and northern Florida could see less than 50 percent of normal moisture," Mr. Reeves said.

 

"But in Texas, traditionally, the decline in moisture isn't that great."

 

Skiers, though, could find ample snow this winter, if they're willing to travel a little farther.

 

"The area across the Cascades, the northern Rockies, maybe the Wasatch, even the Sierras should have good snow," Mr. Reeves said. "The farther north you go, the better off you'll be."

 

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/dn/latestnews/stories/101807dnmetwarmwinter.17e21420d.html

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Miss Star

Miss Star

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I agree! I want a dang WHITE CHRITMAS! I can't remember the last time we had a white christmas here in Louisville.

Yeah I was just thinking the other day it has been a while since we've had a white christmas here in Louisville. I don't like the snow and ice much but I wouldn't mind it for a couple days just for christmas, but after that no more snow PLEASE! lol

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Guest Metallion

Guest Metallion

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I'm okay with that for BF. But I want a White Xmas!!!!

I cant remember the last time it snowed christmas eve. :(

 

Don't count on that. La Nina's typically have very few coastals coming up from the south. They also rarely have a 50/50 low to lock in the cold air, so when a storm does approach it usually brings the warm air at the upper levels, quickly funelling to the lower ground levels. Expect storms this year to be mainly freezing rain quickly changing to plain old rain for anywhere in VA east of the mountains. DC/Balt areas will see about 50-75% of their normal snowfall at best with this pattern.

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trumpet87

trumpet87

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I agree! I want a dang WHITE CHRITMAS! I can't remember the last time we had a white christmas here in Louisville.

Hey, I'm in SW Indiana, and we go lots of Christmases without snow, BUT do you remember Christmas 2004??? WHAT A WHOPPER!!! We had 20+ inches at Christmas that year. I love snow! :fluffy: Didn't you get quite a bit then too? :confused:

 

p.s. for you weather forecasters, was that an el nino or la nino year?

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jdrd90

jdrd90

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Hey, I'm in SW Indiana, and we go lots of Christmases without snow, BUT do you remember Christmas 2004??? WHAT A WHOPPER!!! We had 20+ inches at Christmas that year. I love snow! :fluffy: Didn't you get quite a bit then too? :confused:

 

p.s. for you weather forecasters, was that an el nino or la nino year?

I live in S. Illinois, and we got about 15 inches that year! It was awesome!!

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Marcster

Marcster

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Hey, I'm in SW Indiana, and we go lots of Christmases without snow, BUT do you remember Christmas 2004??? WHAT A WHOPPER!!! We had 20+ inches at Christmas that year. I love snow! :fluffy: Didn't you get quite a bit then too? :confused:

 

p.s. for you weather forecasters, was that an el nino or la nino year?

Yeah, it got so bad that year that we had to go straight home after visiting my in-laws for Christmas moring/afternoon. We couldn't stop at my parents place at all.

 

http://s23.photobucket.com/albums/b399/Marcster2005/Smileypad/Weather/snowflake.gif

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amos311

amos311

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Hey, I'm in SW Indiana, and we go lots of Christmases without snow, BUT do you remember Christmas 2004??? WHAT A WHOPPER!!! We had 20+ inches at Christmas that year.

I live in South, coastal Texas and WE had snow that year on Christmas! The most I've ever seen! People were building snow men on the beach.

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