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News article: Holiday sales expected to be weakest in years


berry1014

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These guys make a living on bad predictions.  Two others will predict robust sales.

 

Personally, I have been predicting lackluster sales.  For starters, there is nothing new out there.  Retailers are counting on drones and 4k televisions to buoy sales, but I think they are wrong on both counts.  I don't know anyone who wants or wants to give a drone.  (Brad, do we need a dedicated drone discussion?)  While I think people who are looking for televisions will get 4k sets, I can't imagine anyone replacing a 1080p or even a 720p set with a 4k set.  So you are limited to people looking to add a set and we have all bought a LOT of televisions over the last decade.

 

The biggest PC upgrade this year was free (Windows 10) and it runs better than Windows 7 or 8 on upgraded machines, so don't expect people to be churning computers.

 

I heard on the radio this morning that the smart phone market is saturated and people are keeping their phones longer.  This is a big deal.  We suspected this was happening when ATT and Verizon started offering non-contract programs.  We KNEW it was happening when Apple announced their own phone churn programs.

 

Is anyone talking about tablets this year?  Amazon is doing six Fire tablets for $250.  I'm sniffing a commodity.

 

Personally, my family is FULL.  I think we could go the rest of our lives without buying anything except food (we have an antenna).

 

Of course, we will buy stuff.  We'll snag deals and clean up on clearance, but these will be on our terms.  I think it is going to be a tough year for retailers. 

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I understand that you, me, and others that are in the game become less excited but I remember in the early 2000's when nothing got better, and one year i didn't even go out, since the sales were just that bad. I try to have a different outlook, helping others and making an assessment of old stock creates needs that may be overlooked until it is too late. I will be looking for a 75 inch 1080p, a reciever, HD 3D projector, and other replacement items that will obviously make their way onto my list this year. I usually have a sale of older items to bring an extra kick to the bankroll.

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Things certainly have changed.  I have never sat in a tent or peed in a bottle, but I always went out with a list and a purpose.  At one time, the discounts warranted the effort.  Lately, I enjoy the anticipation and discussion, but rarely even set an alarm.  The 'discounts' are not as steep, the products are not as necessary, and, frankly, I'm a bit older.

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I would agree Len, to me it's now about the tradition more than what we get. Our haul has been smaller the past few years but we still do get some deals here and there but all in all it's not like it used to be. I will keep doing it though as it really get's me in the mood for the season and tradition needs to continue.

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I went a little nuts last year as it was the first time in several years that we had some extra money. I don't expect to spend as much this year as we plan on moving in the spring or summer and we are saving our money. And I expect to be much pickier this year regarding sale prices. I'm already finding a few good deals so I won't need as much by then. 

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len_mullen, on 28 Sept 2014 - 5:50 PM, said:snapback.png

When I was a kid, there was a season to Christmas.  We went back to school in September with our new clothes and lunch boxes, the days got short and the leaves began to fall, Saturday morning cartoons began to fill with commercials for toys, the Wish Book came in the mail, the decorations came out, the adults got really sneaky, then Santa came.  As an adult, Christmas is just shopping to get done before December 25th.  I enjoy BF because it re-creates that season of anticipation.

I had to go back and find this, Len, because I was pretty sure it was you that had posted it.  It really explains the whole thing for me. The period leading up to Black Friday now, is what Christmas was for me as a child. Don't get me wrong - I still LOVE Christmas, but now my giddiness and anticipation comes from BF. So whether I have a list or not, and despite the changes (most of which, I hate), I'm not giving up on the tradition.

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Predictions are just that....same as forecasting. Weather rarely gets it right, sadly same goes on with call forecasting at work. Same as every year, depending what's on sale and needed, I'll make list and shop online or go out. Don't think much will be needed but definitely need to organize and take inventory before making christmas gift list.
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Take stock of what you have, what you need to replace, and even what your friends and relatives need. I have used this method to keep myself from getting jaded about the upcoming shopping season. I tend to not fall into the category of those who think that the discounts and deals are not as steep. I believe that most of us are savvy enough throughout the year to snag discounts online so it is easier to make the assumption than those who wait until Black Friday.
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What I'm worried about this year is a disparity between sales in store and online. With two little ones under three, I'm more likely to shop from home for convenience. But recently I noticed that TRU had advertised sales that were "in store only" with different sales online. I know that's nothing new, especially for BF, and I know retailers make their money getting you to ship impulsively in store, and I know there are a lot of places doing price matching, but I don't like it. To me, no retailer should ever have prices different online than in store.
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The retailers do need to play the game smarter. We have seen all too many deals online that keep people at home. As you have indicated, they should offer different items online than they do in the stores to drive up business on both ends. The way that it is currently run, you would think that they want to run the brick and mortar component out of business.

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